Tue. Jul 27th, 2021

China’s economy grew by 18.3 percent in the first quarter of 2021 but the explosive rebound from the coronavirus pandemic is slowing abruptly as manufacturing and consumer spending return to normal.

(photo courtesy: http://www.marketwatch.com)

The economy grew by 18.3 percent over a year ago, official data showed Friday, a figure that was magnified by comparison with early 2020, when factories and shops were closed and activity plunged. Growth compared with 2020’s final quarter, when a recovery was under way, slowed to 0.6 percent, among the weakest of the past decade.

The latest figures “mask a sharp slowdown” in the world’s second-largest economy as stimulus spending and easy credit are wound down, Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital economics said in a report.

“China’s post-Covid rebound is leveling off,” Evans-Pritchard said.

Manufacturing, auto sales and consumer spending have recovered to above pre-pandemic levels since the ruling Communist Party declared victory over the coronavirus last March and allowed factories and stores to reopen. Restaurants and shopping malls are filling up, though visitors still are checked for the virus’s telltale fever.

The economy “delivered a stable performance with a consolidated foundation and good momentum of growth,” the National Bureau of Statistics said in a report.

Forecasters expect economic growth of at least 7% percent this year but say China’s outlook is clouded by trade tension with Washington and disruptions in global supplies of processor chips needed by smartphone makers and other tech industries the ruling party is counting on to propel a self-sustaining economy and reduce reliance on trade.

The latest figures are in line with expectations due to the low basis for comparison in early 2020. The economy shrank by 6.8 percent in the first quarter of last year, the worst performance since at least the mid-1960s.

Activity started to recover in the second quarter of 2020, when the economy expanded by 3.2 percent over a year earlier. That accelerated to 4.9 percent in the third quarter and 6.5 percent in the final three months of the year.

For the full year, China eked out 2.3-percent growth, becoming the only major economy to expand while United States, Europe and Japan struggled with renewed disease outbreaks.

This year, the International Monetary Fund and private sector forecasters expect growth to rise to above 8 percent. The ruling party’s official target is “above 6 percent.”

Government data indicate consumer spending, a pillar of the ruling party’s plan to reduce reliance on exports, is accelerating while growth in factory output and investment are slowing.

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