The number of daily Covid-19 cases can go down to less than 2,000 per day by the end of November, according to the OCTA Research group on Wednesday.
”The last time the 7-day average was this low was from March 12 to 18 when it was at 4,848. The reproduction number is 0.52. Based on current trends, cases could decrease to less than 2,000 by end of November,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said over Twitter.
OCTA Research said the average daily number of Covid-19 cases was 4,848 from October 20 to 26, or down from the 6,909 average from October 13 to 19.
The research group earlier projected daily Covid-19 cases to be less than 6,000 for November.
Earlier, the OCTA Research Group said the National Capital Region (NCR) is now classified as low risk for Covid-19 “based on metrics”.
In its latest report, the group noted that the positivity rate in the NCR decreased to 6 percent while its average daily attack rate (ADAR) decreased to less than seven per 100,000 population.
“The seven-day average decreased to 901, from 1,405 the previous week. HCUR (healthcare utilization rate) in the NCR decreased to 35 percent while ICU (intensive care unit) utilization was at 46 percent,” it said.
The local government units (LGUs) which are classified as low risk include Navotas, Malabon, Caloocan, Pateros, Muntinlupa, Las Piñas, Manila, Quezon City, Taguig, Marikina, Makati, Pasay, Parañaque and Pasig.
However, there are three LGUs that are classified as moderate risk due to their above 10 per 100,000 ADAR – Mandaluyong with 10.50; San Juan, 10.57; and Valenzuela, 11.15.NCR’s daily average number of new Covid-19 cases from October 19-25 is 901. Its one-week growth rate is – 36 percent with a reproduction number of 0.49 as of October 25.