Wed. May 25th, 2022

The valuable time she wasted on derogatory narratives to demonize the Marcoses over martial law and dictatorship issues, and her wrongly-placed faith in two special operations projects by the opposition, first calling for the disqualification of her opponent and secondly, painting him as a tax “evader,” shows a miserable failure to launch a political campaign.

Frankly, Leni Robredo still has to explain to me how she will run the government under a post-pandemic setting.

While there may be gravitas to showing that she can gather crowds to her rallies using a mega budget at her disposal, I assume most of those who attended went home with the big question in their minds – what weould she do as president?

We are now at the penultimate hour, with barely a month before election day, and with the overseas Filipinos already filling up their absentee ballots starting today, and the only discernible message that she has sent across is “Laban!” or “Fight!” a grossly misdirected strategy because the incumbent president is not running for reelection. 

Worst, five days ago, Manila Times columnist Rigoberto Tiglao, whom I consider the dean of Philippine journalism today, said “Laylo poll turns off funds flow to Robredo”.

I agree with Bobi’s observations, “the presidential-preference poll by the Pedro Laylo Jr. outfit, undertaken from March 15 to 22 and leaked to media last week, was another nail on the coffin of Leni Robredo’s presidential bid.”

“The survey’s findings, that Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s lead of 59-63 percent to Robredo’s 17-21 percent — basically, unchanged since October — means he is unstoppable at this time.

“As a result, potential funders, even the stridently anti-Marcos elites like the Lopez clan and the leftist wife of a Hong Kong-based tycoon have decided to stop funding the loser’s campaign.

“Sources said that several of ‘Pinklawan’s’ campaign headquarters have been shut down, salaried staff have not been paid, and a major worry for them now is that Robredo won’t have any campaigners on the ground on May 9.

This is almost the same as what Pulse Asia  polled March 17-24 that reads Marcos leads Robredo 56-24, with the former’s numbers ranging from 53 to 60 and her’s 15 to 24 for the trimester.

Publicus Pahayag’s April 6 to 13 shows a 56-23 in favor of BBM who for the trimester performed consistently from 52 to 56, while Robredo was almost static from 20 to 23.

What Dr. Ana Tabunda calls significant are movements that exceed 4%.

Robredo, indeed made a nine-points jump from 15 in February to 24 in March, but she was already made 20 last December.

To remain in contention with 32 points behind the leading candidate, Dra. Tabunda said she should pole vault by 16 points and pray Bongbong would drop by the same 16 points which is highly improbable unless some Deus Ex Machina happens.

Whoever posted this on Facebook has a bizarre understanding of the Roman Catholic faith. The character impersonating a saint in this picture still has to answer questions about her possible dalliance with a married man who serves in her staff.

Using Pulse Asia numbers, that would leapfrog her numbers from 24 to 40, and Marcos’ 56 to plummet down by 12 to also 40, to be able to repeat their vice president scenario that twisted the machine to give her a 230,000 lead. Sounds she must locate Aladdin’s genie as soon as possible.  

With this, I am not surprised at all that FB the posts of Diwa Guinigundo, a !Sambayan convenor and a fanatic Robredo supporter, asking God to “intercede” so “He remains in control.”

To which Tigalo was quick to retort: “It didn’t occur to him that, well, God might be preferring Marcos, and that he would be better off not mistaking the deity’s preferences by praying for instance for Russia to end its ruthless invasion of Ukraine, and save thousands of lives and relieve millions of Ukrainians from misery.”

Refer to my column: Digong Enabling Bongbong’s Rise As Rizal’s Phoenix

Tabunda said the last Pulse Asia survey is coming out early April, which will be releases on the first week of May.

As it stands, most of her supporter would even mind to go to the polls, or shift to the Marcos bandwagon.

Back in October 2021, I gave a fearless forecast that BBM will win anythere between 55 and 60% to become the first majority president after 1986.

My basis was Bongbong was being supported by one of the top political parties Lakas-Kampi of former president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and the largest local party Hugpong Sa Pagbabago (Alliance for Change).

But now the National Unity Party of Enrique Razon, the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino – Laban larger wing under Alfonso Cusi, the Nationalist Party Coalition of the late Danding Cojuangco, the Nacionalista Party of Manuel Villar have also checked into the Bongbong Marcos-Sarah Duterte coalition.

Now I am looking at a figure closing into 72% of voters.

Let see if Bobi Tiglao’s stars match with mine. Here is how his magic ball puts it:

“This time around, however, it doesn’t take rocket science to conclude that with 60 percent of voters going for Marcos and only 20 percent to Robredo, it would be better use of his money for a donor to fund only the clear winner, with a bigger donation to ingratiate himself more with the sure-ball winner — and stop taking calls from Robredo.

“And with bigger finances, Marcos’ showing could be better than what the polls say, since funds would be available for transporting voters to the electoral precincts paying off rural bosses. There are even bettors now that Marcos will win with 70 percent of the votes, the first president to win not just by a majority but by a landslide. Two things give some credence to such optimism.

“First, surveys assume a homogeneous target population: polls are just like taking a teaspoonful out of a soup to taste it. However, the target population — the voters — more often are not homogenous: There are “lumps” in that soup, or command votes.

“Among these are the 1.5 million Iglesia ni Cristo and Apollo Quiboloy’s Kingdom of Jesus Christ, which can come up with 500,000 votes. Together, these two organizations can make up 4 percent of the estimated total votes for Marcos.”

It seems the INC reportedly is out for a sweet revenge and will be issuing strict orders for its members to vote for Marcos. Its leadership was so angry at the Robredo camp which managed to cheat in 2016 that many of the church’s communities appear in the Comelec count as having zero votes for him.

“Second,” Tiglao continues, “according to Laylo’s polls, the only pollster to take this kind of measure, those going for Robredo has a high percentage of “soft voters,” or those who might change their mind, especially when they actually vote.

“Robredo, according to the Laylo report, has a large 24 percent “soft voters,” which means that 24 percent of the 19 percent who said they will vote for her reported, however, they might still change their mind and vote for somebody else.

“This means that she might still lose 5 percentage points of the 19 percent voting for her (24 percent of 19 percent) to end up with just 14 percent of total votes instead of 19 percent. Guess where those 5 percent votes will go.

“The 4 percent command votes plus this 5 percent of Leni voters who might change their mind would push total Marcos votes on election day to 68 percent to 71 percent, taking into account the Laylo survey’s 2 percentage points margin of error.”

Actually Bongbong Marcos’ cry out for unity is far more than just expressing oneness in the face of a pandemic behind us all. I sort of had this in mind when I formed Solidarity for Sovereignty way back in 2009. It is really more of a consolidation for action.

The visioning is already present. Bongbong father drove it into existence calling it the New Society. Verbalized in 1982, in what the old Marcos described as the revolution from the center, a role filled by the government, that revolution remains unfinished.

When Ferdinand was deposed four years with a collusion of local military reformists and American neo-conservatives, taking advantage of the “People Power” confluencing at EDSA, it was replaced with a government burdened by high expectations.

The revolution was truncated, and instead of the political liberation, economic emancipation and social concord that the people had hoped for, five presidents experimenting at good governance, instead brought it precisely where the old Marcos found it when he was first elected president in 1965 – in the hands of the oligarchic few.

By destiny, his son would lose his bid for vice-presidency in 2016. By destiny, he would have at most six years to think out his campaign for the next step, the presidency.

After a reasonable time to lick his wounds, he studied the landscape better and had researched well the needs of the country and its people.  

 Bongbong found the electorate grown to the hands of the least gullible internet-capable members of society, mostly millennials and NewGens. And so he chose a communications link to them through more than 200 vlogs that clearly defines him, his objectives, his policy platform and roadmaps how he will take nation to his chosen destination, progress and prosperity towards the Asian century.

Best of all his positivity is infectious.

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